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Aditya Rao

Financial forecasts in a high-variability industry

Problem

The company in question was a start-up in an industry with high variability and seasonality and needed to develop financial projections for investors that could be easily tweaked based on multiple changing variables (timelines, expected growth, pricing etc) and present sensitivity analyses showing best-case, realistic and worst-case scenarios. The idea was to have a model that didn’t need to be re-created every time a new decision was made (or an existing one changed).


Action

Based on the multiple variables, I created a model where the team could tweak assumptions on the fly and see the impact to revenue and EBITDA projections, as well as to sensitivity analyses around IRR and other valuation metrics that investors were interested in.


Below are screenshots of the Excel model I developed. The model is developed in Excel, and completely interactive - All variables could be updated via checkboxes, formatted cells, or dropdowns (cells with blue backgrounds) to see the updated Finance Forecasts and sensitivity analyses. Note: all names and data have been scrubbed to maintain anonymity.


Result

The model created could easily be updated by even a layman and helped the company raise its initial round of funding.

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